Throughout the torrent of demographic punditry and horse race political analysis, prognosticators are overlooking one demographic: the white vote. We consistently hear that if Romney doesn’t win above a certain level of minority support, he is doomed. However, many of them are overlooking just how badly Obama is polling among white voters. They are forgetting that if Obama loses the white vote by a large enough margin, he will lose the election, irrespective of the degree of his minority support.
Gallup's latest tracking numbers put Mitt Romney ahead of Barack Obama 52% to 45%, the largest lead for Romney since the race began. Historically at least, no one has ever lost with numbers like these, at this stage in the race. According to past Gallup polls, Obama was ahead of Sen. John McCain 52% to 41% in October, George W. Bush had John Kerry beat 52% to 44%, and Bush was up 3% on Al Gore in 2000.
In recent days and weeks, Romney's pulled ahead or within points of Obama among a number of demographics, including women, where a Gallup/USAToday poll had him within a point of Obama among likely female voters in swing states.
And according to the National Journal's Ron Brownstein, among white women in particular, "several polls suggest that Obama's advantage has narrowed or vanished since his disastrous first debate. Most ominous for Obama is evidence that the slippage has occurred not only among usually Republican-leaning blue-collar white women but also their white-collar counterparts.
White voters, in fact, have eluded Obama and the Democratic Party in increasing numbers. As it currently stands, Romney is up by more than 20 points among white voters in a slew of new polls, including Gallup, Monmouth, Fox and Pew. According to the Washington Post, "that's something no GOP presidential candidate has done since Reagan's landslide 1984 reelection win."
To put that in perspective, McCain won the white vote by a 12 point spread, and Bush won it by 17 points in 2004 and 13 points in 2000. Dole and George H.W. Bush won it by only 2 points each in 1996 and 1992 respectively.
Read more here: http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/the_rumble/2012/10/obamas-struggles-with-white-voters-racism-has-nothing-to-do-with-it