Black People Politics : Obama white support is too low

Isfasha

Well-Known Member
MEMBER
May 16, 2012
155
44

Throughout the torrent of demographic punditry and horse race political analysis, prognosticators are overlooking one demographic: the white vote. We consistently hear that if Romney doesn’t win above a certain level of minority support, he is doomed. However, many of them are overlooking just how badly Obama is polling among white voters. They are forgetting that if Obama loses the white vote by a large enough margin, he will lose the election, irrespective of the degree of his minority support.



Gallup's latest tracking numbers put Mitt Romney ahead of Barack Obama 52% to 45%, the largest lead for Romney since the race began. Historically at least, no one has ever lost with numbers like these, at this stage in the race. According to past Gallup polls, Obama was ahead of Sen. John McCain 52% to 41% in October, George W. Bush had John Kerry beat 52% to 44%, and Bush was up 3% on Al Gore in 2000.

In recent days and weeks, Romney's pulled ahead or within points of Obama among a number of demographics, including women, where a Gallup/USAToday poll had him within a point of Obama among likely female voters in swing states.

And according to the National Journal's Ron Brownstein, among white women in particular, "several polls suggest that Obama's advantage has narrowed or vanished since his disastrous first debate. Most ominous for Obama is evidence that the slippage has occurred not only among usually Republican-leaning blue-collar white women but also their white-collar counterparts.

White voters, in fact, have eluded Obama and the Democratic Party in increasing numbers. As it currently stands, Romney is up by more than 20 points among white voters in a slew of new polls, including Gallup, Monmouth, Fox and Pew. According to the Washington Post, "that's something no GOP presidential candidate has done since Reagan's landslide 1984 reelection win."

To put that in perspective, McCain won the white vote by a 12 point spread, and Bush won it by 17 points in 2004 and 13 points in 2000. Dole and George H.W. Bush won it by only 2 points each in 1996 and 1992 respectively.

Read more here: http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/the_rumble/2012/10/obamas-struggles-with-white-voters-racism-has-nothing-to-do-with-it
 

Clyde C Coger Jr

going above and beyond
PREMIUM MEMBER
Nov 17, 2006
57,828
11,814
www.amazon.com
Occupation
Speaker/Teacher/Author
In the Spirit of Politics,


... Put that in your pipe and smoke it, Isfasha:

How Obama Can Win Even If He Loses White Support


The takeaway? Given these scenarios, if Romney is to win, he will likely need to get a higher proportion of whites to vote for him than did not only for McCain, but also for Bush. He will need whites to be really passionate in their support for him, or minorities to be particularly dispassionate in their support for Obama.
Obama has it a bit easier. He “just” needs to make sure the same proportion of minorities votes for him that did four years ago. If the same proportion does, Obama will win five states he could not have won four years ago without the white vote: California, New York, Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin. According to Frey’s charts, the demographics have changed enough in those states that Obama can carry them even without the support of whites.

ratcliff1941, 05/19/2012 12:11 AM
I'm a very old white man. Used to be a Republican. I haven't voted for a Republican for state or national office since the mid 80's. This election won't be an exception. I like Obama's thoughtful intellectual approach to solving problems. He could have been a better president if he hadn't had three "democrat" senators his first two years. The last two years the Republican house put political gain ahead of American prosperity. The Republican economic agenda is killing us. I consider them economic traitors.
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-05-09/how-obama-can-win-even-if-he-loses-white-support
Throughout the torrent of demographic punditry and horse race political analysis, prognosticators are overlooking one demographic: the white vote. We consistently hear that if Romney doesn’t win above a certain level of minority support, he is doomed. However, many of them are overlooking just how badly Obama is polling among white voters. They are forgetting that if Obama loses the white vote by a large enough margin, he will lose the election, irrespective of the degree of his minority support.
 

Create an account or login to comment

You must be a member in order to leave a comment

Create account

Create an account on our community. It's easy!

Log in

Already have an account? Log in here.

Thread starter Similar threads Forum Replies Date
Keita Kenyatta Black People Politics : Why White Supremacists Support Barack Obama Black People Politics 0
Clyde C Coger Jr Black Positive People : Michelle Obama leads tributes to former White House butler who died from coronavirus Black People Doing Positive Things 1
Destee Black People Politics : Trump's Obsession with Obama - Has a White Man Been More Obsessed with a Black Man Before? Black People Politics 5
OldSoul OldSoul : Watch first lady Michelle Obama's final White House speech OldSoul 0
Queenie Black People Politics : Obama White House Town Hall Black People Politics 7
Clyde C Coger Jr Black People Politics : Israel's Netanyahu declines offer to meet with Obama: White House Black People Politics 1
Clyde C Coger Jr Black People Politics : President Obama Paid For Private White House Party With Prince, Stevie Wonder Black People Politics 0
chuck Black People : In The Era Of Obama: The White Media's Double Standard Spares Nobody Black! Black People Open Forum 1
E Black People Politics : How would you respond if Pres. Obama was assassinated by a White person? Black People Politics 3
Clyde C Coger Jr Black Positive People : Obama greets U.S. Olympians at the White House Black People Doing Positive Things 0
King Tubbs Law Forum : White woman condemns Obama's attitude to race Law Forum - Prisons - Gun Ownership 2
W Black People Politics : We‘d ’Be Marching on the White House’ if Not For Obama Black People Politics 9
Proverbs31Woman Black People Politics : Outrage Flares As Michelle Obama Invites Common To White House To Read Poetry Black People Politics 11
O Black People Politics : Obama and your White friends... hands off Mother Afrika!! Black People Politics 22
Ankhur Black People Politics : After One year of "change"(?) would you reelect Obama if he was white? Black People Politics 31
P Black Spirituality Religion : Obama reacts to Voodoo in the White House Black Spirituality / Religion - General Discussion 12
Destee Black People Politics : Is Obama Black, White, Both, or Neither ? Black People Politics 71
S Black People Politics : WHITE MEN BEAT BLACK YOUTH AFTER OBAMA WIN Black People Politics 7
S Black People Politics : not about Mr. Obama, White Supremacy or the RACE CARD.. Black People Politics 12
Mad Skillz Black People Politics : Ralph Nader: Barack Obama wants to ‘talk white’ Black People Politics 93
M Black People Politics : Do White People Like Obama Because He's Not That Black? Black People Politics 15
U Black People Politics : New Video: Barack Obama - White Power in Black Face! Black People Politics 7
N Black People Politics : Obama will secure a republican in the white house Black People Politics 2
Omowale Jabali Omowale Jabali : WHAT WHITE PEOPLE REALLY THINK ABOUT BARACK OBAMA Omowale Jabali 2
C Black People : Barack Obama Black People Open Forum 0
HODEE Black People : Barack Obama Gives Advise To Protesters and took to social media to ‘bring about change’ for social injustice Black People Open Forum 2
Fine1952 Black People Politics : Obama DHS whistleblower found dead with gunshot wound in California Black People Politics 5
Clyde C Coger Jr African American History Culture : End of a decade: What the 2010s, Obama, Trump and Black Lives Matter meant for Americans African American History Culture 0
Clyde C Coger Jr Black People Politics : 'Fair maps': Barack Obama launches new initiative to help take on partisan gerrymandering Black People Politics 0
Clyde C Coger Jr Black People Politics : Mitch McConnell Says Obama's Election Means We Don't Need Reparations Black People Politics 8
Clyde C Coger Jr Black People Politics : 1MDB’s Jho Low, Rapper Pras Michel Indicted Over Obama Donation Black People Politics 0
Clyde C Coger Jr Black People Politics : Michelle Obama: I Didn't Believe America Was Ready For A Black President Black People Politics 5
Clyde C Coger Jr Black Authors : Barack Obama Makes Surprise Appearance During Michelle's Book Tour Short Stories - Authors - Writing 0
Clyde C Coger Jr Black People Politics : Obama warns: if America stays so divided, our democracy and economy won’t survive Black People Politics 9
Clyde C Coger Jr Black Entertainment : Barack and Michelle Obama sign production deal with Netflix Black Entertainment 0
Clyde C Coger Jr Black Sports : President Obama plays with Tiger Woods and Michael Jordan over weekend Black Sports 2
Clyde C Coger Jr Black Sports : Scottie Pippen wavers on Michael Jordan vs. LeBron James debate after Barack Obama chimes in Black Sports 1
HODEE Black People Politics : OBAMA to "Republicans_I didn't create TRUMP.. your hate towards me did! Black People Politics 1
OldSoul OldSoul : Conversation with Mrs. Obama OldSoul 1
Clyde C Coger Jr Black People Politics : OBAMA'S INNER CIRCLE JUST INDICATED THEIR CHOICE FOR PRESIDENT IN 2020, AND IT'S NOT JOE BIDEN Black People Politics 1
Lunar Cycle Black Women : Malia Obama Having Fun At Lollapalooza Black Women 2
Clyde C Coger Jr Black Positive People : Ava DuVernay Pays Tribute To Michelle Obama's Slave Ancestor Black People Doing Positive Things 0
Clyde C Coger Jr Health and Wellness : A Scientific Explanation For Why Barack Obama Looks So **** Good Black Health and Wellness 0
Clyde C Coger Jr Black People Politics : WATCH: Confused 5-Year-Old Wants to Know Where Barack Obama Went Black People Politics 1
Clyde C Coger Jr Black People Politics : Obama: Not bombing Syria 'required the most political courage' Black People Politics 1
Clyde C Coger Jr Black Positive People : Michelle Obama Wore Her Natural Hair For The First Time Black People Doing Positive Things 3
jamesfrmphilly Black Positive People : michelle-obama-snapped-rocking-her-natural-hair Black People Doing Positive Things 0
IFE Black People Politics : Trump and Obama finally Chat Black People Politics 1
AACOOLDRE Brother AACOOLDRE : Black History moment: the poem that got Obama in trouble AACOOLDRE 0
Liberty Black People Politics : Live Barack Obama attacks Donald Trump and says 'American values' are at stake as protesters flood s Black People Politics 11
Similar threads


















































Destee Chat

Latest profile posts

Ms Drea wrote on I_AM_HER's profile.
Welcome To Destee!! Love and Blessings!!
Sup, Fam. Peace.
Destee wrote on Ms Drea's profile.
Sister ... please forgive me, I just been so krazee lately ... I love you ... :love:
Destee wrote on Titoub's profile.
Hi My Friend! How are you? Welcome Home! :wave:
Destee wrote on Monetary's profile.
Hey Money - where ya been? Tell us everything ... :beer:
Top